A Glimmer of Hope for Canada

Given that deaths lag new infections by almost 3 weeks I am actually starting to feel a solid glimmer of hope that Canada is starting to turn the corner, although Quebec is far from out of the woods still.




The gray plot indicates how many days it took to double the total number of deaths. It is currently around 6 or 7 days to double total number of deaths; up from 3 and 4.



Using data provided by CTV News: as at Tuesday, April 21, 2020 6:19PM EDT
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102

COVID-19 Mortality: Days to Double

With the gross deficiency of testing in Canada, it strikes me that no numbers have any reliability except for number of deaths associated with COVID-19. Even that is going to be increasingly suspicious as we do not report number of collateral deaths - people who needed critical care for other reasons such as stroke, coronary or other organ distress, but for whom there were no critical care beds available.

So, anyway, here is my chart of the mortality rate in Canada reflecting number of days to double. Data obtained from CTV News: Tracking every case of COVID-19 in Canada. The present average over the last 3 days suggests it is taking us about 4 days to double the number of fatalities from COVID-19.

COVID-19 Canada New Cases 21 Mar 2020

Two charts today
The first uses the same format as yesterday, but as at today according to data from CTV News:

Tracking every case of COVID-19 in Canada

To be clear, the charts reflect new cases for each day, not the cumulative total of all cases.

The second starts from Feb 22 and limits provincial bar charts to the top 4: BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. All provinces are still reflected in the Canada total numbers.

I strongly recommend that you read this article by TED speaker Tomas Pueyo.
It is a longish read in which he cogently makes the case for copying China, Korea and Singapore by testing and isolating COVID-19 patients BEFORE they show symptoms and start infecting numbers of other people beore they even know they are sick:

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

COVID-19 New Cases in Canada as of 20-Mar-2020

This is not good

The curve is becoming more perpendicular, not flattening
Data derived from CTV News:

Tracking every case of COVID-19 in Canada

COVID-19 New Cases in Canada March 17/20

This chart is based on figures published today at 10:30 pm by CTV News: Tracking every case of COVID-19 in Canada
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102

It is following a predictable curve given how the disease has progressed in other countries.

Sick Notes. Really?

"Sick notes set up skewed incentives for everyone. For employers, they hinder trust with workers and replace effective management, which are important for retention, safety and productivity... For patients, it means they don’t take medical leave when they’re truly unwell: 8 out of 10 Canadians said they would go to work while ill instead of getting a sick note...


"Sick notes don’t benefit the patient, but are a service employers expect free of charge. Since public health insurance doesn’t cover them... requiring private payment from folks already disadvantaged by chronic illness, low income or precarious work is a “double blow” — unwell and out-of-pocket."

Read the full opinion piece in the Toronto Star: Sick notes are bad for everyone. So why not break the habit?

By
Edward Xie, an emergency physician and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.
Monika Dutt, a public health and family physician in Sydney, Nova Scotia, and a board member with Canadian Doctors for Medicare.